Ten Dubious Predictions
June 30th, 2010 by ComputerBob
When’s the last time you tried to predict anything — other than an extremely safe (50% chance of it coming true) prediction that some sports team will beat some other sports team in some sort of game?
As I’ve said many times before, prediction is a very tough business to be in, with thousands or more, known and unknown, interweaving variables contributing to the probability that some predicted event will or will not occur.
And you can only make predictions based on the best knowledge that is available to you at the time — not the additional knowledge that critics in the future will have at their disposal.
So it doesn’t surprise me at all that some well-known people have made some well-known predictions that failed to come true.
Personally, I have no repect for those who — with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight — sit back and laugh at others’ failed predictions, instead of having the courage and intelligence to try to make their own predictions for the future.
That’s why I disagree with the self-serving, judgemental title of 10 Most Stupid Predictions and Statements in History. — it makes me want to say to its author, “Before you go calling other people ’stupid’ for making predictions that turned out to not be true, convince us that you wouldn’t have made those exact same predictions, given the information that was available at the time. And, while you’re at it, describe some of your brilliant predictions for the future that have come true.”
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